commodity Prediction Market Accuracy

How accurate are Polymarket prediction markets for commodity events? Below are the active markets in this category with current odds.

Accuracy in commodity markets

commodity prediction markets on Polymarket benefit from a large pool of informed traders. Markets with higher volume tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as more capital at stake incentivizes better research and analysis.

Currently tracking 30 active commodity markets on Polymarket.

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Yes 2%No 98%
Vol: $13.5MLiq: $59.2k

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 22%No 78%
Vol: $13.5MLiq: $144.9k

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Yes 49%No 52%
Vol: $11.0MLiq: $894.6k

Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 4%No 96%
Vol: $8.6MLiq: $226.7k

Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $6.7MLiq: $156.4k

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Yes 49%No 51%
Vol: $4.0MLiq: $467.9k

Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 0%No 100%
Vol: $1.9MLiq: $134.9k

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Yes 52%No 49%
Vol: $1.8MLiq: $107.5k

Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 12%No 88%
Vol: $1.5MLiq: $130.6k

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?

Yes 55%No 46%
Vol: $1.5MLiq: $77.9k

Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 0%No 100%
Vol: $1.4MLiq: $270.9k

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 7%No 93%
Vol: $1.4MLiq: $107.6k

Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 0%No 100%
Vol: $1.2MLiq: $232.4k

Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 8%No 92%
Vol: $1.1MLiq: $152.1k

Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 5%No 95%
Vol: $1.0MLiq: $113.3k

Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 2%No 99%
Vol: $1.0MLiq: $122.4k

Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 0%No 100%
Vol: $987.4kLiq: $97.9k

Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 3%No 97%
Vol: $900.3kLiq: $154.2k

Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $873.9kLiq: $179.1k

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?

Yes 54%No 46%
Vol: $723.3kLiq: $37.2k

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Yes 57%No 43%
Vol: $693.1kLiq: $54.1k

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

Yes 52%No 48%
Vol: $585.7kLiq: $65.4k

Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 8%No 93%
Vol: $488.9kLiq: $69.8k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Yes 33%No 67%
Vol: $315.5kLiq: $1.9k

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 14%No 87%
Vol: $303.3kLiq: $120.4k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Yes 23%No 77%
Vol: $176.4kLiq: $1.8k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Yes 32%No 68%
Vol: $136.8kLiq: $1.1k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Yes 4%No 96%
Vol: $85.8kLiq: $10.3k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

Yes 5%No 95%
Vol: $53.2kLiq: $3.6k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Yes 6%No 94%
Vol: $49.8kLiq: $2.9k

Risk Disclaimer

Prediction market trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.

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