Will 538 outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?

This prediction market on Polymarket asks: Will 538 outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election? With $81.3k in trading volume and $0 liquidity, the current odds show Yes at 0%.

Yes

0¢

No

0¢

Volume

$81.3k

Liquidity

$0

Status

Closed

What is this market about?

This is a market on whether 538 will outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election. This market will be resolved by comparing the Brier score of 538 and the Economist averaged over all N=51 races. The calculation is further explained here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5503/comparing-538-and-economist-forecasts-in-2020/. This market resolves to "Yes" if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for The Economist's probabilities. The resolution source is based on downloading each model's "model outputs" from their respective websites at 1400 UTC 02-Nov-2020. This market will be resolved in the exact same way the aforementioned Metaculus question thread, given that the result is calculated to the satisfaction of the Market Integrity Committee.

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Risk Disclaimer

Prediction market trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.