Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This prediction market on Polymarket asks: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? With $14.67M in trading volume and $536.3k liquidity, the current odds show Yes at 10%.

Yes

10¢

90¢

Volume

$14.67M

Liquidity

$536.3k

Status

Active

What is this market about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Risk Disclaimer

Prediction market trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.