How many people will have initiated COVID-19 vaccination by Biden’s 100th day in office?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $35.3k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a scalar market on the number of people in The United States of America who will have initiated COVID-19 vaccination by April 29, 2021, 12:00 pm ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). The lower bound for this market is 120,000,000 and the upper bound is 180,000,000. Initiated vaccination refers to the number of people who have received at least one dose of an approved vaccine for COVID-19, as measured by the resolution source, the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

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