What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count be in the US on May 15?

Based on $123.8k in Polymarket trading volume, the crowd currently estimates 40,999 or fewer at 100% probability. This market has $3.0k in liquidity, indicating moderate trader confidence.

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

40,999 or fewer

100%

41,000-65,999

0%

66,000-99,999

0%

100,000 or more

0%

Trading volume: $123.8k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on May 15, 2021 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on May 15, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on May 16, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

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