What will the Margin of Victory be in the 2021 Peruvian Presidential Election?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $3.1k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a scalar market on what the margin of victory will be in the 2021 Peruvian Presidential Election between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo. The election is scheduled to take place on June 6, 2021. The lower bound for this market is -2 (Fujimori) and the upper bound is +4 (Castillo). Margin of victory will be calculated by the following formula: Castillo (percentage of vote) - Fujimori (percentage of vote). For instance, if Castillo received 49.3% of the vote, and Fujimori received 50.7% of the vote, the margin of victory would be (49.3% - 50.7%= -1.4%). Note that full unrounded percentages calculated from raw vote numbers will be used, and the total votes will be considered as Fujimori votes + Castillo votes. For instance, Fujimori’s percentage would be calculated as 100 * (# Fujimori Votes / (# Fujimori Votes + # Castillo Votes)). The resolution source will be https://www.onpe.gob.pe/. To allow for potential updates to results, the earliest resolution of this market will be 1.5 weeks after the election date, i.e. on June 17, 12 PM ET, upon which the resolution source will be checked. If the results are available at that time, the market will resolve according to the results posted on the website at that time. Note that these results need not be the final results — the market will resolve based on the numbers available at June 17, 12 PM ET exactly. If results are unavailable at the resolution source, the source will be checked a day later on June 18, 12 PM ET, and so on until results are available. If results are not available on the resolution source by June 30, 12 PM ET, the market will resolve to +0 margin of victory. Only the results on the webpage when checked at the resolution time will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the margin of victory. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.

What are experts predicting?

Whale traders with large portfolios are actively trading this market on Polymarket. These high-volume traders often have access to deep research and move prices when they take positions. Track which wallets are placing large bets on this question and follow their conviction using PredCopy.