What will US GDP growth be in Q1 2021?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $3.7k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a scalar market on what U.S. GDP growth will be when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases its “advance estimate” of US GDP growth for Q1 2021. The lower bound for this market will be 6.0% and the upper bound for this market will be 8.0%. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of Long and Short shares are capped at $1 and $0. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short price corresponds with GDP growth figures. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s “advance estimate” of annualized real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2021, as reported in its press release announcing this figure currently scheduled for release on April 29, 8:30 AM ET (bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). This market will resolve to GDP growth percentage to the nearest tenths place (e.g. 6.0%, 6.1%, 6.2%, etc). This market will resolve when the BEA advance estimate for Q1 2021 GDP Growth becomes available. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

Whale traders with large portfolios are actively trading this market on Polymarket. These high-volume traders often have access to deep research and move prices when they take positions. Track which wallets are placing large bets on this question and follow their conviction using PredCopy.