Will 21 US States administer at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose to 70% of adults by July 5?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $11.2k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether there will be 21 states or more in the U.S. which have administered at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine to 70% or more of its adult population, by July 5, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s display, for each state, of the percent of the total population that is 18 year of older that has received at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine. See https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, and select “View: People”, “Show: At Least One Dose”, “Metric: % of Population”, “Population: Population ≥ 18 Years of Age”, and then hover over the states on the map, or view tabular data in the Data Table display below. The official resolution source will be the data listed in the Data Table display. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are 21 or more U.S. states which have administered at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine to 70% of its population aged 18 or older, according to the resolution source, on the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” (Note: only the 48 contiguous states, Hawaii, and Alaska will be considered U.S. states for this market. Washington D.C. Puerto Rico, and other U.S. territories will not count.) In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

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