Will 25 US States administer at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose to 50% of residents by July 5?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $2.2k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether there will be 25 states or more in the U.S. which have administered at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine to 50% or more of their total populations, by July 5, 2021, 8:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s display, for each state, of the percent of the total population that has received at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine. See https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations, and select “View: People”, “Show: At Least One Dose”, “Metric: % of Population”, “Population: Total Population”, and then hover over the states on the map, or view tabular data in the Data Table display below. The official resolution source will be the data listed in the Data Table display. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are 25 or more U.S. states which have administered at least one dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine to 50% of its total population, according to the resolution source, on the resolution date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” (Note: only the 48 contiguous states, Hawaii, and Alaska will be considered U.S. states for this market. Washington D.C. Puerto Rico, and other U.S. territories will not count.) In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

Whale traders with large portfolios are actively trading this market on Polymarket. These high-volume traders often have access to deep research and move prices when they take positions. Track which wallets are placing large bets on this question and follow their conviction using PredCopy.