Will a bill which increases long-term capital gains taxes above 20% become law by August 10, 2021?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $41.9k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether a bill will be passed in the U.S. raising long-term capital gains tax rates for individuals to above 20%, by the resolution date, August 10, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by the resolution date, a bill is signed into law in the U.S. which effectively increases the marginal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals to a rate higher than 20% for any tax bracket. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is https://www.congress.gov/, which will be checked regularly to see if a bill meeting the aforementioned criteria is listed as having “became law” on or before the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). In response to trader inquiry: This market doesn't include the 3.8% surtax on net investment income (NII).

What are experts predicting?

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