Will Donald Trump pardon a family member before Inauguration Day?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $122.1k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will pardon an immediate family member prior to the end of his current presidential term (January 21st, 2021). In the event that Donald Trump does pardon an immediate family member, this will be recorded by the Department of Justice here: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-trump. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, during his first term as President, Donald Trump pardons any of the following: Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Tiffany Trump, and Jared Kushner. If none of the listed family members are pardoned by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No“. Any Trump family member not included in the above list will not be considered for this market. If any such pardon is issued after the specified date, January 21st, 2021, this market will resolve to “No.” This market specifically requires the Presidential pardon to be issued during Donald Trump’s current term in office. In the event of any ambiguity, this market will be resolved in good faith and as intended by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Clarification: If the pardon is not listed by the resolution source on the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". "Secret pardons" which are not listed on the website by the resolution date will not satisfy the requirement to resolve to "Yes", nor will the resolution date be extended.

What are experts predicting?

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