Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $874.9k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether an official inauguration of Joe Biden as the President of the United States will take place on January 20th, 2021 outdoors at the western front of the U.S. Capitol facing the National Mall (the site used for all Inaugurations since Ronald Reagan's in 1981). Here is an image of the exact location in question: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/Inauguration-01-20-2009.jpg. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if an official inauguration (defined as an inauguration that results in the demonstrated powers of the US Presidency) is held on January 20th, 2021 in-person, outdoors at the western front of the U.S. Capitol facing the National Mall. If an inauguration happens indoors or at a different location, or no inauguration happens that day at all, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

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