Will NASA conduct a sustained flight of Ingenuity on Mars by April 12?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $8.1k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether NASA will conduct a sustained flight of the Ingenuity Helicopter on Mars by April 12, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. A sustained flight will mean that the Ingenuity Helicopter successfully takes off, sustains flight for longer than 10 seconds and then lands upright. A successful launch and sustained flight will be confirmed by examining information presented during NASA’s official video feed of the launch (https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/#Watch-Online) as well as information presented at the post-flight news briefing (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCryGec9PdUCLjpJW2mgCuLw) and data corroborated by NASA which reflects the status and timing of the flight. If NASA successfully conducts a sustained flight of the Ingenuity Helicopter by April 12, 2021 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. This market will resolve to “No” if NASA does not successfully conduct a sustained flight of the Ingenuity Helicopter by April 12, 2021 11:59 PM ET or if there is not enough information within one week (by April 19, 11:59 PM ET) to confirm sustained flight. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

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