Will Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine be the first to receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

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What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine will be the first vaccine to receive regulatory approval in the USA, in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA, before any other COVID-19 vaccine. This market will resolve when the first FDA approval or EUA for a COVID-19 vaccine occurs, and if it is for Pfizer's vaccine, this market will resolve to "Yes", while if it is for any other vaccine, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market is NOT on if Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine will be the first FDA approved or the first EUA, but rather if it will be the first vaccine to achieve regulatory approval in either form (FDA approval or EUA). If Pfizer's vaccine gets regulatory approval the same day as 1 or more other vaccines, according to EST, the market will resolve to "No", as this means their vaccine is not definitively *first*. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

What are experts predicting?

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