Will the Ethereum 2.0 Genesis Event happen successfully on December 1st, 2020?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $560.3k | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on if the Ethereum 2.0 Beacon Chain genesis event will happen successfully on December 1st, 2020, as planned contingent on the ETH deposit threshold being met in time. The ETH 2 “MIN_GENESIS_TIME” is December 1, 2020, 12pm UTC. If the genesis event doesn’t happen by December 1st, 11:59pm EST, this market will resolve to “No” - and in the unlikely scenario that it happens before November 30th, 11:59pm UTC, the market will also resolve to “No”. The threshold for the genesis event to occur on December 1st is for there to be at least 16,384 32-ETH validator deposits, 7 days prior to December 1st. If the threshold is met, and the genesis event doesn’t happen successfully before resolution time due to unforeseen circumstances, the market will still resolve to “No”. For more information, read this blog post https://blog.ethereum.org/2020/11/04/eth2-quick-update-no-19/ and the hyperlinked smart contract and documentation in it. The resolution source is specified as the official Ethereum blog, but in the case of there not being a definitive answer there, other reputable, on-chain referencing resolution sources would be considered. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the resolution of this market, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will resolve it in good faith in the most accurate way possible.

What are experts predicting?

Whale traders with large portfolios are actively trading this market on Polymarket. These high-volume traders often have access to deep research and move prices when they take positions. Track which wallets are placing large bets on this question and follow their conviction using PredCopy.