Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Trading volume: $1.3M | Status: Closed

What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. In response to trader inquiry: If it can be reasonably construed that the resolution source, the CDC, will publish corrected or otherwise revised COVID-19 case numbers, resolution of this market will consider only those revised numbers. In the event of an initial report which counts case numbers as lower than 50,000 but which is later revised (within 48 hours), only the revised numbers will be considered for the resolution of this market. The same applies if the initial case numbers are higher than 50,000 but are later revised (within 48 hours). Accordingly, resolution of this market may be delayed up to 48 hours if revised numbers are expected to be published. Only revisions of case numbers for dates posted by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST will be considered. If initial case numbers for March 14 are not posted prior to March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, those numbers will not be considered.

What are experts predicting?

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