Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Based on $409.4k in Polymarket trading volume, the crowd currently estimates Yes at 7% probability. This market has $131.3k in liquidity, indicating strong trader confidence.

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

Yes

7%

No

94%

Trading volume: $409.4k | Status: Active

What do we know about this question?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What are experts predicting?

Whale traders with large portfolios are actively trading this market on Polymarket. These high-volume traders often have access to deep research and move prices when they take positions. Track which wallets are placing large bets on this question and follow their conviction using PredCopy.

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Risk Disclaimer

Prediction market trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.