Mean Reversion

Medium Risk
Buy markets that have fallen too far and sell those that have risen too high relative to fundamentals.

Mean reversion assumes that prices tend to return to their fundamental value after overreacting to news or sentiment. When a market spikes or drops sharply, wait for the initial volatility to settle, then assess whether the move was justified. If the fundamentals suggest a less extreme probability, take the opposite position.

This works best in high-liquidity markets where temporary supply/demand imbalances drive prices away from fair value. Patience is key — mean reversion trades may take time to play out. Set reasonable target prices and time horizons.

Combine with volume analysis to confirm when the overreaction is likely exhausting itself..

Live market examples

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Risk Disclaimer

Prediction market trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.

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