Entertainment Prediction Market Accuracy

How accurate are Polymarket prediction markets for entertainment events? Below are the active markets in this category with current odds.

Accuracy in entertainment markets

Entertainment prediction markets on Polymarket benefit from a large pool of informed traders. Markets with higher volume tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as more capital at stake incentivizes better research and analysis.

Currently tracking 30 active entertainment markets on Polymarket.

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 40%No 60%
Vol: $157.4MLiq: $8.6M

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 59%No 41%
Vol: $123.2MLiq: $9.4M

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 0%No 100%
Vol: $42.6MLiq: $2.8M

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $31.8MLiq: $1.8M

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 20%No 80%
Vol: $26.5MLiq: $453.0k

Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $25.3MLiq: $1.9M

Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $22.7MLiq: $1.9M

Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $21.4MLiq: $1.3M

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $16.9MLiq: $730.1k

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $15.0MLiq: $555.1k

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 14%No 86%
Vol: $14.0MLiq: $341.0k

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 2%No 98%
Vol: $12.8MLiq: $412.1k

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 7%No 93%
Vol: $12.6MLiq: $343.4k

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 14%No 86%
Vol: $12.2MLiq: $252.7k

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Yes 50%No 51%
Vol: $11.9MLiq: $274.1k

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 5%No 95%
Vol: $11.6MLiq: $383.8k

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Yes 5%No 95%
Vol: $11.4MLiq: $212.8k

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $11.0MLiq: $882.5k

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 5%No 95%
Vol: $9.1MLiq: $443.6k

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Yes 50%No 50%
Vol: $4.7MLiq: $115.0k

Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?

Yes 51%No 50%
Vol: $1.9MLiq: $63.1k

New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?

Yes 51%No 50%
Vol: $859.5kLiq: $18.1k

New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?

Yes 51%No 50%
Vol: $749.0kLiq: $10.5k

Trump out as President before GTA VI?

Yes 51%No 50%
Vol: $697.6kLiq: $53.1k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Yes 96%No 4%
Vol: $391.0kLiq: $3.4k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $218.0kLiq: $2.3k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Yes 1%No 100%
Vol: $179.2kLiq: $3.4k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $147.7kLiq: $3.1k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $97.1kLiq: $2.4k

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

Yes 1%No 99%
Vol: $92.4kLiq: $1.4k

Risk Disclaimer

Prediction market trading involves substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Only trade with funds you can afford to lose.

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