Implied Probability

The probability of an outcome as implied by the market price.

A contract trading at $0.65 implies a 65% probability of that outcome occurring. Comparing implied probabilities across markets can reveal trading opportunities.

See it in action

Will Joe Biden get Coronavirus before the election?

Yes 0¢Vol: $32.3k

Will Airbnb begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?

Yes 0¢Vol: $89.7k

Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before Nov 3rd, 2020?

Yes 0¢Vol: $43.3k

Related terms

Conditional Token

A token on the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework (CTF) that represents a specific outcome in a prediction market. Polymarket uses CTF tokens as the underlying asset for all its markets.

USDC

USD Coin, a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Polymarket uses USDC on the Polygon network as its primary trading currency. All deposits, withdrawals, and winnings are denominated in USDC.

Resolution

The process of settling a prediction market after the outcome is determined. When a market resolves, winning outcome tokens pay out $1 each and losing tokens become worthless.

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