Will 538 outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?

What are the current odds?

Based on Polymarket prediction data, the current odds are:

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What do we know about this question?

This is a market on whether 538 will outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election. This market will be resolved by comparing the Brier score of 538 and the Economist averaged over all N=51 races. The calculation is further explained here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5503/comparing-538-and-economist-forecasts-in-2020/. This market resolves to "Yes" if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for The Economist's probabilities. The resolution source is based on downloading each model's "model outputs" from their respective websites at 1400 UTC 02-Nov-2020. This market will be resolved in the exact same way the aforementioned Metaculus question thread, given that the result is calculated to the satisfaction of the Market Integrity Committee.

What are experts predicting?

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