Resolution Hunting

Resolution hunting targets markets where the outcome is virtually certain but the contract hasn't yet resolved. Buying "Yes" at 97 cents on a market that will almost certainly resolve "Yes" yields a 3% return in a short timeframe. While the absolute return is small, the risk is minimal and the annualized return can be attractive.

Focus on markets with clear resolution criteria and no remaining uncertainty. Check resolution dates to estimate your holding period. The main risk is an unexpected outcome — even 97% probabilities can be wrong.

Diversify across multiple near-resolution markets to reduce this risk..